Effect of oil and food price shocks on the Ecuadorian economy
Measuring the response on economic growth and domestic inflation due to fluctuations on oil prices in the international market is a matter of interest for oil exporting economies, as is the case of Ecuador. A more precise understanding of the dynamics of these relationships is an essential condition...
সংরক্ষণ করুন:
| প্রধান লেখক: | |
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| বিন্যাস: | article |
| ভাষা: | spa |
| প্রকাশিত: |
2020
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| বিষয়গুলি: | |
| অনলাইন ব্যবহার করুন: | https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/263 |
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ট্যাগ যুক্ত করুন | _version_ | 1838839178903683072 |
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| author | Tinizhañay Peralta, José Paúl |
| author_facet | Tinizhañay Peralta, José Paúl |
| author_role | author |
| collection | Revista Cuestiones Económicas |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Tinizhañay Peralta, José Paúl |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2020-12-10 |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf text/html |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/263 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | spa |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Banco Central del Ecuador |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/263/187 https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/263/194 |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | Derechos de autor 2020 Cuestiones Económicas https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | Cuestiones Económicas; Vol. 30 Núm. 2 (2020): Revista Cuestiones Económicas; Autor: José Paúl Tinizhañay Peralta 2697-3367 2697-3367 reponame:Revista Cuestiones Económicas instname:Banco Central del Ecuador instacron:BCE |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Economic growth; Inflation; Oil prices; structural VAR Crecimiento económico; Inflación; Precios del petróleo; VAR estructural |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Effect of oil and food price shocks on the Ecuadorian economy Efecto de shocks de precios del petróleo y alimentos en la economía ecuatoriana |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículos de Investigación |
| description | Measuring the response on economic growth and domestic inflation due to fluctuations on oil prices in the international market is a matter of interest for oil exporting economies, as is the case of Ecuador. A more precise understanding of the dynamics of these relationships is an essential condition for the development of short-term action plans and medium- and long-term economic development strategies. This research aims to analyze the short-term impact on macroeconomic variables in Ecuador, economic growth and inflation specifically, due to shocks in two exogenous variables: world oil price and the world food price index, in the period 1980-2019. For this, a structural VAR model is used and impulse response functions and variance decomposition are analyzed. The results allow to conclude that oil price shocks positively affect Ecuador's economic growth for two consecutive years, while inflation is negatively affected in the initial period by shocks in the food index and oil prices. The forecast error variance is mostly affected by the food index in initial periods, and by oil price shocks in subsequent forecast periods |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | REVCUESTEC_0069634b5a150b0e41cc8beb2bef0bb8 |
| instacron_str | BCE |
| institution | BCE |
| instname_str | Banco Central del Ecuador |
| language | spa |
| network_acronym_str | REVCUESTEC |
| network_name_str | Revista Cuestiones Económicas |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec:article/263 |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Banco Central del Ecuador |
| reponame_str | Revista Cuestiones Económicas |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | Revista Cuestiones Económicas - Banco Central del Ecuador |
| repository_id_str | |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Derechos de autor 2020 Cuestiones Económicas https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
| spelling | Effect of oil and food price shocks on the Ecuadorian economyEfecto de shocks de precios del petróleo y alimentos en la economía ecuatorianaTinizhañay Peralta, José PaúlEconomic growth; Inflation; Oil prices; structural VARCrecimiento económico; Inflación; Precios del petróleo; VAR estructuralMeasuring the response on economic growth and domestic inflation due to fluctuations on oil prices in the international market is a matter of interest for oil exporting economies, as is the case of Ecuador. A more precise understanding of the dynamics of these relationships is an essential condition for the development of short-term action plans and medium- and long-term economic development strategies. This research aims to analyze the short-term impact on macroeconomic variables in Ecuador, economic growth and inflation specifically, due to shocks in two exogenous variables: world oil price and the world food price index, in the period 1980-2019. For this, a structural VAR model is used and impulse response functions and variance decomposition are analyzed. The results allow to conclude that oil price shocks positively affect Ecuador's economic growth for two consecutive years, while inflation is negatively affected in the initial period by shocks in the food index and oil prices. The forecast error variance is mostly affected by the food index in initial periods, and by oil price shocks in subsequent forecast periodsLa respuesta del crecimiento económico y la inflación doméstica debido a fluctuaciones de los precios del petróleo constituye un tema central para economías exportadoras de crudo, como es el caso de Ecuador. Una comprensión más precisa de la dinámica de estas relaciones es una condición necesaria para el desarrollo de planes de acción de corto plazo y estrategias de desarrollo económico de mediano y largo plazo. Esta investigación tiene por objetivo analizar el impacto de corto plazo en variables macroeconómicas para Ecuador: el crecimiento económico y la inflación; debido a los shocks en dos variables exógenas: precio del petróleo y el índice mundial de precios de alimentos, en el periodo 1980-2019. Para ello se utiliza un modelo VAR estructural y se analiza funciones impulso respuesta y descomposición de varianza. Los resultados señalan que los shocks del precio del petróleo afectan positivamente el crecimiento económico durante dos años consecutivos, mientras que la inflación es afectada negativamente en el periodo inicial por shocks en el índice de alimentos y precios del petróleo. La varianza de error de pronóstico es mayormente afectada por el índice de alimentos en periodos iniciales, y por shocks en el precio del petróleo en periodos de pronóstico subsiguientesBanco Central del Ecuador2020-12-10info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArtículos de Investigaciónapplication/pdftext/htmlhttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/263Cuestiones Económicas; Vol. 30 Núm. 2 (2020): Revista Cuestiones Económicas; Autor: José Paúl Tinizhañay Peralta2697-33672697-3367reponame:Revista Cuestiones Económicasinstname:Banco Central del Ecuadorinstacron:BCEspahttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/263/187https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/263/194Derechos de autor 2020 Cuestiones Económicashttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-03-04T07:54:43Zoai:estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec:article/263Portal de revistashttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCEOrganismo de gobiernowww.bce.fin.echttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/oaiEcuadoropendoar:2021-03-04T07:54:43falsePortal de revistashttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCEOrganismo de gobiernowww.bce.fin.echttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/oaiEcuadoropendoar:2021-03-04T07:54:43Revista Cuestiones Económicas - Banco Central del Ecuadorfalse |
| spellingShingle | Effect of oil and food price shocks on the Ecuadorian economy Tinizhañay Peralta, José Paúl Economic growth; Inflation; Oil prices; structural VAR Crecimiento económico; Inflación; Precios del petróleo; VAR estructural |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Effect of oil and food price shocks on the Ecuadorian economy |
| title_full | Effect of oil and food price shocks on the Ecuadorian economy |
| title_fullStr | Effect of oil and food price shocks on the Ecuadorian economy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effect of oil and food price shocks on the Ecuadorian economy |
| title_short | Effect of oil and food price shocks on the Ecuadorian economy |
| title_sort | Effect of oil and food price shocks on the Ecuadorian economy |
| topic | Economic growth; Inflation; Oil prices; structural VAR Crecimiento económico; Inflación; Precios del petróleo; VAR estructural |
| url | https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/263 |