Unveiling the economic cycle in Ecuador through an optimal filter in a dollarized economy

The business cycle measures fluctuations in long-term aggregate eco­nomic activity. This paper estimates the business cycle with different filtering techniques based on the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) series for 2000.I-2023.III in the new moving base. The cycli­cal components and turning points are estimated to characterize the economic cycle by evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of the esti­mates. Based on the comparative analysis, we evidence convergence in the results. On average, the filters have five periods of boom and bust. The expansion periods last eight quarters (two years), while the slowdown lasts seven quarters (more than a year and a half), and their complete cycles have an average of fourteen quarters (three and a half years). The forecast-enhanced Hodrick-Prescott double-band (HPM) and Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF) filters accurately described historical events and the Ecuadorian economic situation.

• Autor Principal: Yaselga Alvarado, Emanuel Daniel (author)
• Outros autores: Pilacuán Erazo, Gandy (author)
• Formato: article
• Idioma: spa
• Publicado: 2024
• Subjects: Economic cycle; Turning points; Filter; Economic growth; Expansion; Contraction; ciclo económico; puntos de giro; filtro; crecimiento económico; Expansión; Contracción
• Acceso en liña: https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/463