Measuring Ecuador's Economic and Political Uncertainty Index using Google Trends
The measurement of uncertainty in a context of constant change is of paramount importance for informed decision-making, given its significant impact on investment, consumption, credit, and the financial stability of countries. This study employs Google Trends data and advanced statistical technique...
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| Format: | article |
| Language: | spa |
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2024
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| Online Access: | https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/443 |
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| author | Yaselga Alvarado, Emanuel Daniel |
| author2 | Aguirre Soria, Kamila Villarreal Sosa , Fabian Alejandro Tapia Encalada, Diego Patricio |
| author2_role | author author author |
| author_facet | Yaselga Alvarado, Emanuel Daniel Aguirre Soria, Kamila Villarreal Sosa , Fabian Alejandro Tapia Encalada, Diego Patricio |
| author_role | author |
| collection | Revista Cuestiones Económicas |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Yaselga Alvarado, Emanuel Daniel Aguirre Soria, Kamila Villarreal Sosa , Fabian Alejandro Tapia Encalada, Diego Patricio |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2024-06-28 |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf text/html |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/443 10.47550/34.1.3 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | spa |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Banco Central del Ecuador |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/443/353 https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/443/366 |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | Derechos de autor 2024 Cuestiones Económicas https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | Cuestiones Económicas; Vol. 34 Núm. 1 (2024): Revista Cuestiones Económicas; Autores: Kamila Aguirre, Emanuel Yaselga, Fabián Villareal y Diego Tapia 2697-3367 2697-3367 reponame:Revista Cuestiones Económicas instname:Banco Central del Ecuador instacron:BCE |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | uncertainty economics politics Google Trends principal component analysis Incertidumbre Economía Política Google Trends Análisis de componentes principales |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Measuring Ecuador's Economic and Political Uncertainty Index using Google Trends Midiendo la incertidumbre política y económica en Ecuador a partir del uso de Google Trends |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículos de Investigación |
| description | The measurement of uncertainty in a context of constant change is of paramount importance for informed decision-making, given its significant impact on investment, consumption, credit, and the financial stability of countries. This study employs Google Trends data and advanced statistical techniques to develop a political and economic uncertainty index for Ecuador, covering the period from 2004 to 2023. The proposed index effectively captures key moments of substantial instability in the country, including the overthrow of former President Lucio Gutiérrez, the declaration of default on external debt, the 30-S political crisis, the April 2016 earthquake, national strikes, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the index is correlated with other uncertainty measures, including the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI), the Volatility Index (VIX), and oil prices. This index offers a real-time perspective on the evolution of uncertainty in Ecuador, which may prove valuable in anticipating the evolution of relevant macroeconomic variables such as consumption and investment. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | REVCUESTEC_43ab62c03f04b03994bd86a5fb05200d |
| identifier_str_mv | 10.47550/34.1.3 |
| instacron_str | BCE |
| institution | BCE |
| instname_str | Banco Central del Ecuador |
| language | spa |
| network_acronym_str | REVCUESTEC |
| network_name_str | Revista Cuestiones Económicas |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec:article/443 |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Banco Central del Ecuador |
| reponame_str | Revista Cuestiones Económicas |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | Revista Cuestiones Económicas - Banco Central del Ecuador |
| repository_id_str | |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Derechos de autor 2024 Cuestiones Económicas https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
| spelling | Measuring Ecuador's Economic and Political Uncertainty Index using Google TrendsMidiendo la incertidumbre política y económica en Ecuador a partir del uso de Google TrendsYaselga Alvarado, Emanuel DanielAguirre Soria, KamilaVillarreal Sosa , Fabian Alejandro Tapia Encalada, Diego Patricio uncertaintyeconomicspoliticsGoogle Trendsprincipal component analysisIncertidumbreEconomíaPolíticaGoogle TrendsAnálisis de componentes principalesThe measurement of uncertainty in a context of constant change is of paramount importance for informed decision-making, given its significant impact on investment, consumption, credit, and the financial stability of countries. This study employs Google Trends data and advanced statistical techniques to develop a political and economic uncertainty index for Ecuador, covering the period from 2004 to 2023. The proposed index effectively captures key moments of substantial instability in the country, including the overthrow of former President Lucio Gutiérrez, the declaration of default on external debt, the 30-S political crisis, the April 2016 earthquake, national strikes, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the index is correlated with other uncertainty measures, including the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI), the Volatility Index (VIX), and oil prices. This index offers a real-time perspective on the evolution of uncertainty in Ecuador, which may prove valuable in anticipating the evolution of relevant macroeconomic variables such as consumption and investment.La medición de la incertidumbre en un contexto de cambio constante es de suma importancia para la toma de decisiones informadas, dada su significativa influencia en la inversión, el consumo, el crédito y la estabilidad financiera de los países. Este estudio utiliza datos de Google Trends y técnicas estadísticas avanzadas para desarrollar un índice de incertidumbre política y económica para Ecuador, cubriendo el período desde 2004 hasta 2023. El índice propuesto captura de manera efectiva momentos clave de inestabilidad en el país, incluyendo el derrocamiento del expresidente Lucio Gutiérrez, la declaración de default de la deuda externa, la crisis política del 30-S, el terremoto de abril de 2016, las protestas sociales y la pandemia de COVID-19. Además, el índice demuestra una correlación con otras medidas de incertidumbre, incluyendo el Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI), el Índice de Volatilidad (VIX) y los precios del petróleo. Este índice ofrece una perspectiva en tiempo real sobre la evolución de la incertidumbre en Ecuador, lo cual puede ser valioso para anticipar la evolución de variables macroeconómicas relevantes como el consumo y la inversión.Banco Central del Ecuador2024-06-28info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArtículos de Investigaciónapplication/pdftext/htmlhttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/44310.47550/34.1.3Cuestiones Económicas; Vol. 34 Núm. 1 (2024): Revista Cuestiones Económicas; Autores: Kamila Aguirre, Emanuel Yaselga, Fabián Villareal y Diego Tapia2697-33672697-3367reponame:Revista Cuestiones Económicasinstname:Banco Central del Ecuadorinstacron:BCEspahttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/443/353https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/443/366Derechos de autor 2024 Cuestiones Económicashttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2025-09-02T18:28:49Zoai:estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec:article/443Portal de revistashttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCEOrganismo de gobiernowww.bce.fin.echttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/oaiEcuadoropendoar:2025-09-02T18:28:49falsePortal de revistashttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCEOrganismo de gobiernowww.bce.fin.echttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/oaiEcuadoropendoar:2025-09-02T18:28:49Revista Cuestiones Económicas - Banco Central del Ecuadorfalse |
| spellingShingle | Measuring Ecuador's Economic and Political Uncertainty Index using Google Trends Yaselga Alvarado, Emanuel Daniel uncertainty economics politics Google Trends principal component analysis Incertidumbre Economía Política Google Trends Análisis de componentes principales |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Measuring Ecuador's Economic and Political Uncertainty Index using Google Trends |
| title_full | Measuring Ecuador's Economic and Political Uncertainty Index using Google Trends |
| title_fullStr | Measuring Ecuador's Economic and Political Uncertainty Index using Google Trends |
| title_full_unstemmed | Measuring Ecuador's Economic and Political Uncertainty Index using Google Trends |
| title_short | Measuring Ecuador's Economic and Political Uncertainty Index using Google Trends |
| title_sort | Measuring Ecuador's Economic and Political Uncertainty Index using Google Trends |
| topic | uncertainty economics politics Google Trends principal component analysis Incertidumbre Economía Política Google Trends Análisis de componentes principales |
| url | https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/443 |