Oil prices and economic cycles in a dollarized economy: A Markov Switching Regime approach applied to the Ecuadorian Economy
The economies of commodity exporters are highly exposed to commodity price cycles; however, booms and busts can cause asymmetric impacts within the economy. Understanding the dynamics of these cycles can assist in the management of their broader impacts on economic and social wellbeing, Accordingly,...
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| Formato: | article |
| Idioma: | spa |
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2021
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| Acceso en liña: | https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/274 |
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| author | Carvajal, Alexander |
| author2 | Martin-Mayoral, Fernando |
| author2_role | author |
| author_facet | Carvajal, Alexander Martin-Mayoral, Fernando |
| author_role | author |
| collection | Revista Cuestiones Económicas |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Carvajal, Alexander Martin-Mayoral, Fernando |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2021-06-15 |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf text/html text/xml |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/274 10.47550/RCE/31.1.1 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | spa |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Banco Central del Ecuador |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/274/208 https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/274/213 https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/274/302 |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | Derechos de autor 2021 Cuestiones Económicas https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | Cuestiones Económicas; Vol. 31 Núm. 1 (2021): Revista Cuestiones Económicas; Autores: Alexander Carvajal y Fernando Martin-Mayoral 2697-3367 2697-3367 reponame:Revista Cuestiones Económicas instname:Banco Central del Ecuador instacron:BCE |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Economic growth Business cycle Time Series non-linear models Markov Switching Model Crecimiento económico Ciclo económico Series de Tiempo modelos no lineales Cambio de Régimen de Markov |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Oil prices and economic cycles in a dollarized economy: A Markov Switching Regime approach applied to the Ecuadorian Economy Precio del Petróleo y Ciclo Económico en una economía dolarizada: Un enfoque de cambio de régimen de Markov aplicado a la economía ecuatoriana |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículos de Investigación |
| description | The economies of commodity exporters are highly exposed to commodity price cycles; however, booms and busts can cause asymmetric impacts within the economy. Understanding the dynamics of these cycles can assist in the management of their broader impacts on economic and social wellbeing, Accordingly, the objective of this research is to analyze the relationship between price variations of raw materials, specificallyoil, and the economic cycle of a dollarized economy such as Ecuador’s. The research is based on a Markov regime switching model, which allows establishing states for the economic cycle and the transitions between cycles as a consequence of oil price shocks. The research was carried out for the period 1991:01-2018:04. The results obtained show evidence that oil price variations are related to changes in the state ofthe business cycle in the Ecuadorian economy. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | REVCUESTEC_7f6ff960b96915d2f9a55f14e8f0cf5a |
| identifier_str_mv | 10.47550/RCE/31.1.1 |
| instacron_str | BCE |
| institution | BCE |
| instname_str | Banco Central del Ecuador |
| language | spa |
| network_acronym_str | REVCUESTEC |
| network_name_str | Revista Cuestiones Económicas |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec:article/274 |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Banco Central del Ecuador |
| reponame_str | Revista Cuestiones Económicas |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | Revista Cuestiones Económicas - Banco Central del Ecuador |
| repository_id_str | |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Derechos de autor 2021 Cuestiones Económicas https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
| spelling | Oil prices and economic cycles in a dollarized economy: A Markov Switching Regime approach applied to the Ecuadorian EconomyPrecio del Petróleo y Ciclo Económico en una economía dolarizada: Un enfoque de cambio de régimen de Markov aplicado a la economía ecuatorianaCarvajal, AlexanderMartin-Mayoral, FernandoEconomic growthBusiness cycleTime Seriesnon-linear modelsMarkov Switching ModelCrecimiento económicoCiclo económicoSeries de Tiempomodelos no linealesCambio de Régimen de MarkovThe economies of commodity exporters are highly exposed to commodity price cycles; however, booms and busts can cause asymmetric impacts within the economy. Understanding the dynamics of these cycles can assist in the management of their broader impacts on economic and social wellbeing, Accordingly, the objective of this research is to analyze the relationship between price variations of raw materials, specificallyoil, and the economic cycle of a dollarized economy such as Ecuador’s. The research is based on a Markov regime switching model, which allows establishing states for the economic cycle and the transitions between cycles as a consequence of oil price shocks. The research was carried out for the period 1991:01-2018:04. The results obtained show evidence that oil price variations are related to changes in the state ofthe business cycle in the Ecuadorian economy.Las economías de los exportadores de materias primas están muy expuestas a los ciclos de precios de las materias primas; sin embargo, los auges y las caídas pueden causar impactos asimétricos dentro de la economía. Comprender la dinámica de estos ciclos puede ayudar en la gestión de sus impactos más amplios en el bienestar económico y social. Respectivamente, esta investigación tiene el objetivo de analizar el efectoasimétrico o no lineal de las variaciones de precios de las materias primas, específicamente el petróleo sobre el ciclo económico de una economía dolarizada como la ecuatoriana, durante el periodo 1991:01-2018:04. Para ello se utilizará un modelo de cambios de régimen de Markov, el cual permite establecer estados para el ciclo económico y las transiciones entre ciclos como consecuencia de shocks del precio delpetróleo. Los resultados obtenidos muestran estados de expansión más recurrentes que los estados de recesión, donde las variaciones en el precio del petróleo están relacionadas con los cambios en el estado del ciclo económico de la economía ecuatoriana.Banco Central del Ecuador2021-06-15info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArtículos de Investigaciónapplication/pdftext/htmltext/xmlhttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/27410.47550/RCE/31.1.1Cuestiones Económicas; Vol. 31 Núm. 1 (2021): Revista Cuestiones Económicas; Autores: Alexander Carvajal y Fernando Martin-Mayoral2697-33672697-3367reponame:Revista Cuestiones Económicasinstname:Banco Central del Ecuadorinstacron:BCEspahttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/274/208https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/274/213https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/274/302Derechos de autor 2021 Cuestiones Económicashttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2022-06-07T19:22:23Zoai:estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec:article/274Portal de revistashttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCEOrganismo de gobiernowww.bce.fin.echttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/oaiEcuadoropendoar:2022-06-07T19:22:23falsePortal de revistashttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCEOrganismo de gobiernowww.bce.fin.echttps://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/oaiEcuadoropendoar:2022-06-07T19:22:23Revista Cuestiones Económicas - Banco Central del Ecuadorfalse |
| spellingShingle | Oil prices and economic cycles in a dollarized economy: A Markov Switching Regime approach applied to the Ecuadorian Economy Carvajal, Alexander Economic growth Business cycle Time Series non-linear models Markov Switching Model Crecimiento económico Ciclo económico Series de Tiempo modelos no lineales Cambio de Régimen de Markov |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Oil prices and economic cycles in a dollarized economy: A Markov Switching Regime approach applied to the Ecuadorian Economy |
| title_full | Oil prices and economic cycles in a dollarized economy: A Markov Switching Regime approach applied to the Ecuadorian Economy |
| title_fullStr | Oil prices and economic cycles in a dollarized economy: A Markov Switching Regime approach applied to the Ecuadorian Economy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Oil prices and economic cycles in a dollarized economy: A Markov Switching Regime approach applied to the Ecuadorian Economy |
| title_short | Oil prices and economic cycles in a dollarized economy: A Markov Switching Regime approach applied to the Ecuadorian Economy |
| title_sort | Oil prices and economic cycles in a dollarized economy: A Markov Switching Regime approach applied to the Ecuadorian Economy |
| topic | Economic growth Business cycle Time Series non-linear models Markov Switching Model Crecimiento económico Ciclo económico Series de Tiempo modelos no lineales Cambio de Régimen de Markov |
| url | https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/274 |