Modeling of the temporal dynamics of insect populations

In this research, insects are studied, the group of animals with the greatest ecological representation and that far outnumber the rest of the species that interact with man (Mora et al., 2011). Is there a global decrease in insects? Given the availability of a historical database, which covers the period 2009 - 2019, and which contains abundance data for nine orders of insects (taxa) on Barro Colorado Island, in the middle of the Panama Canal, the motivation for conduct this research. For this, the following analyzes will be used: (i) SARIMA models (Box-Jenkins methodology) will be estimated to capture seasonal effects and (ii) thanks to the availability of climate data, GLM models will be estimated to verify the influence of certain climatological variables on the abundance of insects. The ultimate goal of this research then is to establish whether insect populations in tropical forests are declining. The results of this study are expected to show that the abundance of insects has not changed over time, in addition, being thermophilic, the abundance of insects should rise given the increase in temperature on Barro Colorado Island.

• Main Author: Obando, Jason (author)
• Format: article
• Language: spa
• Published: 2021
• Subjects: Economía ecológica; Servicios de los ecosistemas; Conservación de la biodiversidad; Bioeconomía; Ecología industrial
• Online Access: https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/350