Supply elasticity of Ecuadorian cocoa 2014-2024

The volatility of agricultural prices, intensified by climatic uncertainty and production rigidity, represents one of the greatest challenges to the sustainability of the cocoa market. In 2023, Ecuador accounted for 12 % of the global cocoa market, and in 2024, when the international price quadrupled, exports increased by 11,3 % compared to 2023. This research aims to analyze the effect of price fluctuations on the supply elasticity of cocoa between 2014-2024, focusing on the provinces that concentrate more than 75 % of national production. Based on the Nerlove model, the results show that supply responds slowly in the short run but adjusts more sensitively in the long run. The adjustment coefficients indicate the time farmers take to adapt their production to new prices and the factors that influence this process. These findings provide valuable information for producers, helping them avoid impulsive responses to temporary price fluctuations, and guide the design of public policies by considering the need for price stabilization mechanisms, incentives for productive diversification, access to agricultural credit, and insurance against climate risks.

• Auteur principal: Jami Pinan, Daniela Mishell (author)
• Autres auteurs: Barrionuevo, María de los Ángeles (author)
• Format: article
• Langue: spa
• Publié: 2025
• Sujets: Cocoa exports; agricultural price; price sensitivity; supply response; Nerlove model; Exportación de cacao; precio agrícola; sensibilidad de precios; respuesta de oferta; modelo Nerlove
• Accès en ligne: https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/522