Analyzing the dynamics of the us dollar index: NYICDX perspectives

This descriptive research analyzes the evolution of the NYICDX index between 2000 and 2024, using the Dollar Smile Theory (TSD) as a conceptual framework. Through an inferential approach, the different stages of the index are evaluated using descriptive statistics, normality tests, coefficient of variation, and the Friedman test. A new indicator, the Tilt Force Coefficient (CFI), is also introduced to deepen the anal­ysis of trends. In order to understand the dynamics of the NYICDX and characterize its primary stages, the analysis is linked to the most relevant economic crises of the period. The results reveal that the Glob­al Recession and Robust Economic Expansion stages present greater volatility, coinciding with the premise of the TSD on trend changes. The IFC confirms that the U.S. Growth Slowdown stage exhibits the most significant downward force. In contrast, the Foreign Economy Growth and Robust Economic Expansion stages show the most sig­nificant growth forces. The Friedman test exposes mirror results and indicates significant differences between some stages, such as Rest of the World Growth and Recession in the U.S. and the Growth of the Rest of the Economies that Outperform the U.S. However, no significant differences are found between other stages. In conclusion, this study provides a detailed characterization of the dynamics of the NYICDX over the last decades, mainly validating the postulates of the TSD and providing new evidence through the CFIx.

• Main Author: von Schoettler, Ricardo (author)
• Format: article
• Language: spa
• Published: 2024
• Subjects: Sonrisa del dólar; Coeficiente; Economía; Indicador; Índice NYICDX; Dollar Smile; Coefficient; Economy; Indicator; NYICDX Index
• Online Access: https://estudioseconomicos.bce.fin.ec/index.php/RevistaCE/article/view/471