Forecast of pollution by pm10 particulate material with time series
This study aims to explain the temporal variation of PM10 particles in Quito's air quality, estimate future pollution risks, and minimize adverse health effects through the implementation of preventive measures. The research adopts a quantitative approach, focusing on data from the Quito Metrop...
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| 語言: | spa |
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2025
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| 在線閱讀: | https://revistas.uteq.edu.ec/index.php/cyt/article/view/944 |
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添加標簽 | _version_ | 1862931112833056768 |
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| author | Guerrero Muñoz, Gabriela |
| author2 | Armijos Toro, Livino Manuel |
| author2_role | author |
| author_facet | Guerrero Muñoz, Gabriela Armijos Toro, Livino Manuel |
| author_role | author |
| collection | Revista Ciencia y Tecnología |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Guerrero Muñoz, Gabriela Armijos Toro, Livino Manuel |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv | 2025-07-02 |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf text/html |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | https://revistas.uteq.edu.ec/index.php/cyt/article/view/944 10.18779/cyt.v18i2.944 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | spa |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | https://revistas.uteq.edu.ec/index.php/cyt/article/view/944/1038 https://revistas.uteq.edu.ec/index.php/cyt/article/view/944/1057 |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | Derechos de autor 2025 Gabriela Johyma Guerrero Muñoz, Livino Manuel Armijos Toro https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | Ciencia y Tecnología; Vol. 18 No. 2 (2025): Science and Technology Journal; 86-96 Ciencia y Tecnología; Vol. 18 Núm. 2 (2025): Revista Ciencia y Tecnología; 86-96 Ciencia y Tecnología; v. 18 n. 2 (2025): Revista Ciência e Tecnologia; 86-96 1390-4043 1390-4051 10.18779/cyt.v18i2 reponame:Revista Ciencia y Tecnología instname:Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo instacron:UTEQ |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Polución aérea calidad de aire Guamaní Air pollution air quality Guamaní |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Forecast of pollution by pm10 particulate material with time series Pronóstico de la contaminación por material particulado PM.10 con series de tiempo |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| description | This study aims to explain the temporal variation of PM10 particles in Quito's air quality, estimate future pollution risks, and minimize adverse health effects through the implementation of preventive measures. The research adopts a quantitative approach, focusing on data from the Quito Metropolitan Atmospheric Monitoring Network (REMMAQ) to predict PM10 pollution. The results indicate that the average particulate matter concentrations at each station for a year are acceptable based on homoscedasticity, stationarity, and normality models. The most suitable station is Guamaní, where particulate matter concentrations reach up to 38.8%. According to forecasts, air quality is considered good when it falls within the 0-50 range, where the health effects are acceptable. Guamaní consistently presents acceptable values in the range, The selected ARIMA (2, 1, 5) model, with an acceptable and appropriate fit, provides a robust alternative for managing air quality through PM10 particles using time series analysis. This study provides valuable information on air quality in Quito and the potential to address air pollution. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | REVCYT_6aa2a23ad5d5a1de790797a96868ea59 |
| identifier_str_mv | 10.18779/cyt.v18i2.944 |
| instacron_str | UTEQ |
| institution | UTEQ |
| instname_str | Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo |
| language | spa |
| network_acronym_str | REVCYT |
| network_name_str | Revista Ciencia y Tecnología |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:revistas.uteq.edu.ec:article/944 |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo |
| reponame_str | Revista Ciencia y Tecnología |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | Revista Ciencia y Tecnología - Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo |
| repository_id_str | |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Derechos de autor 2025 Gabriela Johyma Guerrero Muñoz, Livino Manuel Armijos Toro https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |
| spelling | Forecast of pollution by pm10 particulate material with time series Pronóstico de la contaminación por material particulado PM.10 con series de tiempoGuerrero Muñoz, GabrielaArmijos Toro, Livino ManuelPolución aéreacalidad de aireGuamaníAir pollutionair qualityGuamaníThis study aims to explain the temporal variation of PM10 particles in Quito's air quality, estimate future pollution risks, and minimize adverse health effects through the implementation of preventive measures. The research adopts a quantitative approach, focusing on data from the Quito Metropolitan Atmospheric Monitoring Network (REMMAQ) to predict PM10 pollution. The results indicate that the average particulate matter concentrations at each station for a year are acceptable based on homoscedasticity, stationarity, and normality models. The most suitable station is Guamaní, where particulate matter concentrations reach up to 38.8%. According to forecasts, air quality is considered good when it falls within the 0-50 range, where the health effects are acceptable. Guamaní consistently presents acceptable values in the range, The selected ARIMA (2, 1, 5) model, with an acceptable and appropriate fit, provides a robust alternative for managing air quality through PM10 particles using time series analysis. This study provides valuable information on air quality in Quito and the potential to address air pollution.Este estudio pretende explicar la variación temporal de las partículas PM10 en la calidad del aire de Quito, estimar los riesgos futuros de contaminación y minimizar los efectos nocivos para la salud mediante la aplicación de medidas preventivas. La investigación adopta un enfoque cuantitativo, centrándose en los datos de la Red Metropolitana de Monitoreo Atmosférico de Quito (REMMAQ) para predecir la contaminación por PM10. Los resultados indican que las concentraciones promedio de material particulado en cada estación para un año es aceptable con base en los modelos de homocedasticidad, estacionariedad y normalidad. La estación más adecuada es Guamaní, donde las concentraciones de material particulado alcanzan hasta 38,8 %. Según las previsiones, la calidad del aire es buena cuando se sitúa en el intervalo 0-50, en el que los efectos sobre la salud son aceptables. Guamaní presenta sistemáticamente valores aceptables en este rango. El modelo seleccionado es ARIMA (2, 1, 5) con un ajuste aceptable y apropiado, proporcionando una alternativa robusta para el manejo de la calidad del aire a través de partículas PM10 mediante el análisis de series de tiempo. Este estudio proporciona información valiosa sobre la calidad del aire en Quito y el potencial para abordar la contaminación atmosférica. Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo2025-07-02info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdftext/htmlhttps://revistas.uteq.edu.ec/index.php/cyt/article/view/94410.18779/cyt.v18i2.944Ciencia y Tecnología; Vol. 18 No. 2 (2025): Science and Technology Journal; 86-96Ciencia y Tecnología; Vol. 18 Núm. 2 (2025): Revista Ciencia y Tecnología; 86-96Ciencia y Tecnología; v. 18 n. 2 (2025): Revista Ciência e Tecnologia; 86-961390-40431390-405110.18779/cyt.v18i2reponame:Revista Ciencia y Tecnologíainstname:Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedoinstacron:UTEQspahttps://revistas.uteq.edu.ec/index.php/cyt/article/view/944/1038https://revistas.uteq.edu.ec/index.php/cyt/article/view/944/1057Derechos de autor 2025 Gabriela Johyma Guerrero Muñoz, Livino Manuel Armijos Toro https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2025-07-03T21:06:21Zoai:revistas.uteq.edu.ec:article/944Portal de revistashttps://revistas.uteq.edu.ec/index.php/cytUniversidad públicahttps://www.uteq.edu.ecEcuadorCiencia y tecnología1390-40431390-4043opendoar:2025-07-03T21:06:21falsePortal de revistashttps://revistas.uteq.edu.ec/index.php/cytUniversidad públicahttps://www.uteq.edu.ecEcuadorCiencia y tecnología1390-40431390-4043opendoar:2025-07-03T21:06:21Revista Ciencia y Tecnología - Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedofalse |
| spellingShingle | Forecast of pollution by pm10 particulate material with time series Guerrero Muñoz, Gabriela Polución aérea calidad de aire Guamaní Air pollution air quality Guamaní |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Forecast of pollution by pm10 particulate material with time series |
| title_full | Forecast of pollution by pm10 particulate material with time series |
| title_fullStr | Forecast of pollution by pm10 particulate material with time series |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecast of pollution by pm10 particulate material with time series |
| title_short | Forecast of pollution by pm10 particulate material with time series |
| title_sort | Forecast of pollution by pm10 particulate material with time series |
| topic | Polución aérea calidad de aire Guamaní Air pollution air quality Guamaní |
| url | https://revistas.uteq.edu.ec/index.php/cyt/article/view/944 |