El Gasto Público y El Ciclo Económico en el Ecuador, 2000 - 2022
Ecuador has been characterized by maintaining a pro-cyclical pattern of public spending, which has led to high fiscal deficits and an increase in public debt. This research aims to determine the influence of public spending on Ecuador’s economic cycle during the 2000–2022 period. To achieve this, th...
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| Format: | article |
| Jezik: | spa |
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2026
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| Online dostop: | https://revistas.ute.edu.ec/index.php/economia-y-negocios/article/view/1669 |
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Označite | Izvleček: | Ecuador has been characterized by maintaining a pro-cyclical pattern of public spending, which has led to high fiscal deficits and an increase in public debt. This research aims to determine the influence of public spending on Ecuador’s economic cycle during the 2000–2022 period. To achieve this, the study employed the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology and analyzed the correlation matrix and cross-correlation among the variables under study. The results show a positive correlation, suggesting that consumption, gross fixed capital formation, exports, imports, and current expenditure exhibit procyclical behavior. Furthermore, it was found that current expenditure does not generate short-term economic growth—there is no causal relationship. However, according to the impulse response function, a shock in current expenditure does stimulate the economy, but only for no more than two quarters. In conclusion, it can be said that an expansionary fiscal policy has a very short-lived effect on generating higher income and employment—and is even less effective when applied during an expansionary economic cycle. |
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