Remesas y Ciclo Económico, un estudio empírico para Ecuador, 2000-2021

ABSTRACT: For the analysis of remittances and the economic cycle, a statistical approach was used, that allows to determine the behaviour of the variables during the study period, and the Hodrick and Prescott filter was also executed to highlight the trajectory and cycle of the GDP in Ecuador during the years of study showing a strong increasing trend, despite the fact that the analysed cycle quarterly fluctuated constantly. A descriptive statistical analysis was carried out to examine the behaviour of the variables during the period between 2000 and 2021. The Hodrick-Prescott filter was applied, initially to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with the purpose of identifying the economic cycles experienced by Ecuador during the study period. Subsequently, an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model was carried out; the analysis of the results reveals that three independent variables maintain a significant and positive relationship with economic growth. These variables are remittances, oil GVA and consumption. On the other hand, it is observed that inflation also maintains a significant relationship, but with a negative nature. These findings indicate that an increase in remittances, oil GVA and consumption is associated with higher economic growth, while an increase in inflation is related to lower economic growth . Keywords: business cycle, Hodrick filter, FDI, Inflation, GDP, and remittances.

• Autor principal: Llamuca Llamuca, Luz Yesenia (author)
• Format: bachelorThesis
• Idioma: spa
• Publicat: 2023
• Matèries: ciclo económico; filtro de Hodrick; Inflación; PIB y remesas
• Accés en línia: http://dspace.unach.edu.ec/handle/51000/12130