Factores determinantes del saldo de la balanza comercial en el Ecuador en el periodo, 2000-2020

ABSTRACT: Ecuad's economy has experienced a deficit in the trade balance during recent decades and this document attempts to identify the macroeconomic variables that have influenced such a situation. Therefore, this study mainly focuses on five exogenous variables such as Gross Domestic Product, External Public Debt, Foreign Direct Investments, Real Exchange Rate Index and Inflation, including an endogenous factor that can affect the balance. external of an economy. The model used in this study is developed for the first-order autoregressive process as used by many research studies conducted in the recent past in relation to this area, using quarterly data from 2000 to 2021. According to the empirical results, It was observed that the external public debt, the real exchange rate index and inflation; They have a significant impact on the balance of trade of the Ecuadorian economy. A nominal exchange rate and foreign direct investments have not influenced the current situation. There is no positive relationship between GDP and foreign direct investments with the balance of trade, which is not a significant factor and this result is not supported by the latest studies carried out. Therefore, it can be concluded that the policy measures adopted during the last four decades of Ecuador's economic history with respect to the exchange rate have had a significant influence in rectifying the external balance problem in Ecuador.

• Glavni avtor: Guamán Chicaiza, María Cristina (author)
• Format: bachelorThesis
• Jezik: spa
• Izdano: 2023
• Teme: Economía; equilibrio; estudio; significativa
• Online dostop: http://dspace.unach.edu.ec/handle/51000/12003