Determinantes macroeconómicos de la migración internacional desde Ecuador, periodo 200-2021.
International migration has been a latent problem for all economies, and Ecuador is no exception. In the case of Ecuador, the migratory stampede began in the 1950s but became more prominent after the banking crisis of 1999. Based on the above, the aim is to identify the macroeconomic determinants th...
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| Formato: | bachelorThesis |
| Lenguaje: | spa |
| Publicado: |
2023
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | http://dspace.unach.edu.ec/handle/51000/11074 |
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Agregar Etiqueta | Sumario: | International migration has been a latent problem for all economies, and Ecuador is no exception. In the case of Ecuador, the migratory stampede began in the 1950s but became more prominent after the banking crisis of 1999. Based on the above, the aim is to identify the macroeconomic determinants that influence people's decision to migrate internationally, for which four explanatory variables were considered according to the literature review: unemployment, actual gross domestic product, remittances, and real wages. The method used is quantitative, descriptive, explanatory, and correlational; through the methodology of the Vector Autoregressive [VAR] model, an analysis of variance decomposition, impulse response function, and Granger causality is carried out. The results of the model show that the macroeconomic variable that explains greater participation is unemployment, whose relationship is positive to migratory flows since an increase in the unemployment rate increases the outflow of people to countries that provide labor stability by 0.74%. Similarly, remittances are significant to international migration with bidirectional behavior since remittances are a representative contribution to the country, since with the money received, the condition of economic and social inequality is gradually reduced; this variable had an inverse relationship so that, with a reduction in remittances, migratory flows will increase by 0.05%. Concerning real GDP, a direct connection was obtained concerning outflows of 3.65% since remittances contribute to GDP. The actual salary had a direct relationship with international discharges from the point of view of the attraction factor of the destination country since the increase in the real wage generates higher income for migrants. Therefore, they send a more significant number of remittances. |
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