Análisis cuantitativo del modelo lotka-volterra aplicado a la producción agrícola de cacao en la provincia de Santo Domingo.

The purpose of this research is to analyze the population dynamics of the cacao crop (Theobroma cacao) and its interaction with the pest known as the chacarrera ant (Atta cephalotes). This ant is one of the main threats to cacao production in the province of Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, specifically in the parish of San Jacinto del Búa. In this study, a mathematical model was developed based on the Lotka-Volterra system. This system is well known in ecology for representing predation-prey relationships and is also easily adjusted to model the crop-pest relationship. This study used a quantitative methodology based on a system of nonlinear differential equations to represent the growth rates of cacao plants and the pest. Field data collection included sampling 100 prolific cacao plants. This was complemented by interviews with expert farmers with over 30 years of agricultural experience. The parameters were fitted using least squares methods and numerical simulations to investigate various infestations and crop recovery scenarios. The results of this research allowed us to identify equilibrium points and dynamic characteristics of the proposed model. We also determined the numerical values of the model parameters that best fit the collected data on cocoa fruit production. This resulted in a dynamic model that shows the population relationships between cocoa and the chacarrera ant throughout the flowering period until harvest. The model helps identify conditions under which the system behaves in a stable or unstable manner.

• প্রধান লেখক: Revelo Alava, Héctor Paul (author)
• বিন্যাস: masterThesis
• ভাষা: spa
• প্রকাশিত: 2025
• বিষয়গুলি: modelado matemático; cacao; Lotka-Volterra; plagas agrícolas; sistemas dinámicos; hormiga chacarrera
• অনলাইন ব্যবহার করুন: http://dspace.unach.edu.ec/handle/51000/15772