Aplicación de un modelo de regresión estadístico para analizar la problemática de migración por puertos y aeropuertos del Ecuador

ABSTRAC In the present investigation, a statistical analysis was carried out using the migration data obtained from the National Institute of Statistics and Census INEC regarding the outflow of the year 2021, whose main purpose was to apply a statistical regression model that allows the analysis of the migration problem by ports and airports of Ecuador to predict, control or optimize migratory flows. The study was prepared due to the growing migratory flow that has been evident in the country since 2010, with a peak of 7,653 entries and exits of national and foreign people in 2018, then a decrease occurred due to the COVID pandemic. resuming growth since 2021, which led to the disabling of two immigration control points Puerto el Carmen and Puerto Nuevo Rocafuerte. This methodological research applied a non-experimental transectional design, based on INEC data, which includes 1468,567 international departures of Ecuadorians and foreigners. Using the statistical software R, a multinomial Logit regression statistical model was proposed in which the dependent variable Y, means of transport (land, sea, air and river) was used and 5 of the 24 independent variables X were taken. , existing (Type of nationality, month of mobility, sex of migrant, motivation for the trip and occupation of the migrant). From the formulation and adjustment of the proposed model, a precision of 97.74% and McFadden's determination coefficients of 61.21% and Nagelkerke's coefficients of 65.35% were obtained. That is, with these results it was possible to conclude that the proposed multinomial logistic regression model is excellent, and serves to predict the outbound transport routes from Ecuador, considering the variable described to develop improvement plans regarding the control and optimization of migratory flows. Keywords: Model, regression, logistics, transportation routes, migratory flow

• المؤلف الرئيسي: Morocho Yupanqui, Gladys Susana (author)
• التنسيق: masterThesis
• اللغة: spa
• منشور في: 2023
• الموضوعات: Modelo; regresión; logística; flujo migratorio
• الوصول للمادة أونلاين: http://dspace.unach.edu.ec/handle/51000/11541