Efectos Del Cambio Climático En Zonas Urbanas Aledañas A Las Quebradas “San Sebastián” Y “El Rosario” Del Cantón Guano

The “San Sebastián” and “El Rosario” water ravines, located in the Guano canton, province of Chimborazo, register alarming effects in recent periods regarding the issue of extreme climatic events that generate intense rainfall, mudslides, and floods in the canton. This problem could worsen if the effect of Climate Change on the flow rate of water ravines is considered. The limited information about the impact that Climate Change would have on Ecuador reduces the spectrum of research to work based on the availability of meteorological data recorded by the INAHMI hydrometeorological stations and the possible change scenarios determined by the MAATE. The objective was to identify the flood-prone areas affected by a likely future scenario in which the most unfavorable Climate Change conditions are applied. For this, IDF curves were constructed based on the annual records of the hydrometeorological station M1036 of the ESPOCH. Next, hydrological and hydraulic modeling was carried out in the HEC-HMS and IBER software, considering an RCP 8.5 climate scenario with a return period of 50 years. The results mainly reveal an increase in flow velocities and the level of water depths, in which increases of up to 1.75 [m/s] and 3.31 [m] are recorded over the current levels that do not consider the CC scenario. Regarding susceptible areas, there was a slight increase in the regions that would be affected, which also posed a risk to the daily life of the residents of the Guano canton. Therefore, the competent authorities are expected to take the respective measures about risk management, urban planning, and long-term prevention measures regarding natural disasters due to extreme climate events.

• Главный автор: Lema Osorio, Ronald Mauricio (author)
• Другие авторы: Suárez Venlasaga, Dennis Alexander (author)
• Формат: bachelorThesis
• Язык: spa
• Опубликовано: 2023
• Предметы: Cambio Climático; Modelación Hidrológica; Modelación Hidráulica; Inundaciones
• Online-ссылка: http://dspace.unach.edu.ec/handle/51000/12119