Vulnerabilidad al cambio climático de la Red Vial Estatal E-35, tramo Loja – Catamayo, en la provincia de Loja

The State Road Network E-35, section Loja-Catamayo, in the province of Loja, Ecuador, is exposed to extreme weather phenomena that can affect its infrastructure and transitability. This study aimed to evaluate the vulnerability of this road section to climate change, analyzing the current and projected climatic conditions under the SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios using global climate models from CMIP6, for the periods 2015–2045 and 2046–2075. The methodology included the collection and analysis of historical data from 1981-2010 on precipitation and temperature from 19 weather stations near the study area. Statistical tests were applied to identify outliers and assess the homogeneity of the data series. Subsequently, a vulnerability analysis of the road was carried out using technical indicators related to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to extreme weather events. The results showed a historical seasonal climate regime with intense rainfall from February to April and extremely high temperatures from March to October. The projections indicated an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events during the 21st century, especially under the SSP585 scenario for the period 2046-2075, with increases in annual precipitation of 14% and in the annual maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures of 2,28 °C, 2,12 °C, and 2,71 °C, respectively. These indicated changes will intensify the vulnerability of the road infrastructure and raise the risk to road safety on 20,931 km of the Loja Catamayo route, which is characterized by a high vulnerability category. Consequently, the urgent need to adapt the land transport infrastructure in this mountainous region to changing climatic conditions is evident. Technical adaptation measures are proposed, such as improvements in drainage systems and early warning systems, as well as a participatory governance model, to increase the climate resilience of the Loja-Catamayo road.

• Hoofdauteur: Piñeda Armijos, César Aurelio (author)
• Formaat: bachelorThesis
• Taal: spa
• Gepubliceerd in: 2024
• Onderwerpen: VULNERABILIDAD; CAMBIO CLIMATICO; INFRAESTRUCTURA
• Online toegang: https://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/29563