“El precio del petróleo y su impacto en la inflación: Un análisis de series de tiempo para Ecuador 1990-2022”
The Ecuadorian economy depends mostly on the oil sector, which has shown significant effects in different economic sectors, causing variations in economic indicators such as inflation, which has been growing in recent years worldwide. Therefore, the objective of this research is to analyze the short...
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| Главный автор: | |
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| Формат: | bachelorThesis |
| Язык: | spa |
| Опубликовано: |
2024
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| Предметы: | |
| Online-ссылка: | https://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/31575 |
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Добавить метку | Итог: | The Ecuadorian economy depends mostly on the oil sector, which has shown significant effects in different economic sectors, causing variations in economic indicators such as inflation, which has been growing in recent years worldwide. Therefore, the objective of this research is to analyze the short- and long-term equilibrium relationship between oil prices and inflation in Ecuador. Using time series data for the period 1990-2022; and based on the hypothesis of cost inflation driven by oil prices and the theory of aggregate supply and demand of Blanchard (1997). The methodology includes time series cointegration techniques, vector autoregressive models, error correction models and causality tests. The results confirm short-run and long-run equilibrium, and bidirectional causality between inflation and oil prices. Therefore, future policies should be oriented to the reduction of oil dependence by promoting the development of other sectors such as tourism and technology, encouraging research and development of alternative energy sources. |
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