Dinámica y perspectivas de cambio de uso de suelo, en los cantones Nangaritza, Paquisha, Yantzaza y el Pangui, de la provincia de Zamora Chinchipe

The dynamics of land use change in the cantons of Nangaritza, Paquisha, Yantzaza and Pangui in the province of Zamora Chinchipe is influenced by anthropogenic activities that generate an intensive demand for resources. Among these activities are agriculture, infrastructure development, mining extraction and population growth, which are causing significant and notable changes in land cover over time. In the framework of this research, we sought to analyze the drivers and transitions of land use change in the cantons of Nangaritza, Paquisha, Yantzaza and El Pangui, in the time period 1990 - 2080, under climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, AR6. For this purpose, land use coverages for the years 1990 - 2000 - 2014, provided by the interactive map of the Ministry of Environment Water and Ecological Transition [MAATE] (of its acronym in Spanish), were analyzed, as well as the natural and anthropogenic driving forces that drive land use change, and restrictions such as protected areas or reserves were considered in the Land Changue Modeler simulator of TerrSet. Once the driving forces of change were established, using Cramer's V statistic, projections were made for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080, with the IPCC AR6 climate change scenarios, SSP1-2.6 (low emissions); SSP3-7.0 (high emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (very high emissions), to quantify land use change transitions. The results show that forest cover decreased considerably, by 101 555 ha by 2080, while cropland and urban areas increased for each scenario implemented: 96 931 ha for the SSP1-2.6 scenario, 96 868 ha for the SSP3-7.0 scenario and 98 144 ha for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. These findings suggest the need to generate alternatives focused on improving the inefficient use of control regulations and development plans established by the state and the Autonomous Decentralized Municipal Governments, in order to provide adequate and planned land use management at the territorial level.

• Autor Principal: Christian Vinicio, Cueva Pacheco (author)
• Formato: masterThesis
• Idioma: spa
• Publicado: 2024
• Subjects: FUERZAS MOTRICES; ESCENARIOS AR6 IPCC
• Acceso en liña: https://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/29841