Modelamiento de ecosistemas de la provincia de Zamora Chinchipe bajo el escenario IPCC –AR5 – 6.0

Species/ecosystem distribution models are normally developed using ecosystem location data relating them to environmental variables that influence their distribution. Climate change over the years has been a major determinant in various aspects of the world's biodiversity. The province of Zamora Chinchipe is home to a great diversity of ecosystems, which have been threatened by indiscriminate felling, increasing this way the effects of climate change. This research aims to model the terrestrial ecosystems of the province of Zamora Chinchipe through correlative modeling approaches to determine their current and future state under the IPCC – AR5 - 6.0 climate scenario. To generate the distribution models, the Biomod2 v4.0 statistical library was used, implemented in R Core Team, and the 18 ecosystems of the province of Zamora Chinchipe were also modeled using a database of presences and absences. 19 bioclimatic variables and 4 topographic variables were used, carrying out correlative tests that allowed the collinearity of the variables to be eliminated to subsequently carry out the projection for the year 2080. The results show that the low montane evergreen forest ecosystem of the South of the Eastern Cordillera of the Andes (BsBn02) has a surface area of 617,745.45 ha, that is, it is the ecosystem with the largest extension in the province of Zamora Chinchipe, followed by the Evergreen Montane Forest ecosystem of the South of the Eastern Cordillera of the Andes (BsMn02) with a surface of 287,582.96 ha. Contrary to this, the ecosystems with the smallest surface area in the province are the high montane evergreen shrubland of the Páramo del Sur (AsAn01) with a surface area of 27,604.62 ha and the Páramo floodplain grassland (HsSn04) which has an area of 16,198.22 ha. ha, this being the ecosystem with the smallest surface area. Furthermore, ecosystem distribution models showed that the current surface probability, when compared to future projections for each ecosystem, has a probability of loss greater than 50% in most ecosystems. This could be due to the fact that some of the ecosystems with large area losses are located on the borders of Ecuador and Peru, so by not using bioclimatic variables from the border country it was not possible to observe whether the ecosystems will change or modify their specific conditions so that the species inhabit the same ones in the future.

• Autor Principal: Guamán Calva, Lizbeth Cristina (author)
• Formato: bachelorThesis
• Idioma: spa
• Publicado: 2024
• Subjects: DISTRIBUCION DE ECOSISTEMAS; ESCENARIOS DE CAMBIO CLIMATICO; BIODIVERSIDAD
• Acceso en liña: https://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/29861