Análisis sobre la incidencia de la deuda pública en el crecimiento económico de Ecuador durante el periodo 1990-2019
Most developing countries face poor economic performance as a result of which public debt has become one of the main sources of financing to solve economic problems and guarantee economic and social development, however the impact of debt can cause destabilization when it exceeds the payment capacit...
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| Format: | bachelorThesis |
| Sprog: | spa |
| Udgivet: |
2022
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| Fag: | |
| Online adgang: | https://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/25081 |
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Tilføj Tag | Summary: | Most developing countries face poor economic performance as a result of which public debt has become one of the main sources of financing to solve economic problems and guarantee economic and social development, however the impact of debt can cause destabilization when it exceeds the payment capacity of an economy. For this reason, the objective of this research is to evaluate the incidence of public debt on Ecuador's economic growth during 1990-2019. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, Johansen's cointegration test, and Granger causality. In the first instance, the results show a direct relationship, although when incorporating other variables, public debt and economic growth maintain an inverse relationship, with respect to the control variables, only industrialization contributes positively, contrary to commercial openness, which negatively affects, while foreign direct investment lacks significance. On the other hand, the existence of a long-term negative relationship between public debt and growth is evidenced, in addition, a relationship of cointegration and unidirectional causality of GDP per capita towards debt is verified. The implication of policy is aimed at the State strengthening the institutional quality of the public sector in such a way that there is an efficient administration of the allocation of resources. |
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