Determinación de patrones espaciales de peste porcina clásica en Ecuador, periodo 2019-2021

In Ecuador, an important sector is dedicated to pig farming and is harmed by Classical Swine Fever (CSF), a disease characterized by presenting as an infectious multisystem syndrome. During the period 2019–2021, 415 notifications of presumptive diseases were registered, confirming 61 PPC outbreaks. Control strategies are based on quarantine measures, the slaughter of infected herds, and immunization. In the present investigation, it was proposed to determine high-risk areas for CSF, using the information from the SVO from 2019 to 2021. A prospective and retrospective spatial-temporal analysis was carried out, implementing a Poisson probability model, to identify temporal-spatial groups of disease transmission and predict behavior patterns in specific areas. The results show clusters where the risk of the disease is higher than their surroundings and other areas where the risk of expected cases is higher, mainly due to the greater number of pig farms. There were important PPC space-time groups, and the analysis determined provinces such as Manabí (Cluster 1), Loja (Cluster 2), and Zamora (Cluster 3). This research facilitates the understanding and dynamics of transmission and provides proposals for control sites and the implementation of risk-based epidemiological surveillance activities. The findings provide the impetus for future research aiming to examine factors that predispose to and may influence the spread of the disease. Keywords: Epidemiology, Sanitary Surveillance, Risk areas, Swine Fever, Classical, Temporary space, Conglomerate.

• 1. Verfasser: Palma Ramírez, Darwin Mauricio (author)
• Format: masterThesis
• Sprache: spa
• Veröffentlicht: 2023
• Schlagworte: EPIDEMIOLOGIA; PESTE PORCINA CLASICA; CONGLOMERADOS
• Online Zugang: https://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/27451