Relación entre el desempleo y la informalidad laboral en Ecuador durante el período 1990-2022 usando modelos de series de tiempo

In Ecuador, labor informality represents a structural issue that impacts society as a whole. It is characterized by precarious working conditions, unfair wages, and a reduced State budget, which collectively diminishes the population's well-being by limiting access to basic goods and services. In 2023, more than half of the population is engaged in the informal sector; hence, this study analyzed the relationship between labor informality and structural factors such as unemployment, human capital, poverty, and population growth. Data were collected from sources including the World Bank's: Informal Economy database, the Penn World Table, and CEPAL. In addition, an econometric approach using time-series data was employed, incorporating unit root and cointegration tests. Subsequently, a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model was implemented to identify long-term equilibrium relationships, along with a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model to assess short-term adjustments. Causal relationships between variables were also examined. The findings revealed a positive and significant effect of unemployment on labor informality in the long term, while in the short term, this relationship was negative. Poverty emerged as a critical determinant of labor informality, demonstrating that resource and opportunity constraints hinder access to the formal sector. In this context, it is essential to design policies that encourage employment formalization through the implementation of educational and training programs, and fiscal incentives for companies to formalize jobs, and provide social security schemes.

• Автор: Bravo Mosquera, Mayerly Stefany (author)
• Формат: bachelorThesis
• Мова: spa
• Опубліковано: 2025
• Предмети: ECONOMIA; DESEMPLEO; INFORMACION LABORAL; LOJA
• Онлайн доступ: https://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/32189