Remesas enviadas por los emigrantes y su incidencia en la sostenibilidad fiscal del Estado ecuatoriano

During the 1990s and the late twentieth century, Ecuador experienced an economic crisis and a series of phenomena that contracted the national economy. Against this contentious backdrop, a large portion of Ecuadorians chose to migrate to other countries, primarily the United States and Spain. In this context, remittances constitute a fundamental and essential element for defining different migratory contexts and for proposing reforms and new public policies within the State. This research aims to analyze the behavior of remittances sent by emigrants and their impact on the fiscal sustainability of the Ecuadorian State during the period 2018-2022. To achieve this, a descriptive and correlational methodology was employed. Likewise, a semilogarithmic linear regression econometric model with time series was constructed to establish causality between the variables of public debt and remittances. The results indicate that remittances have experienced a constant increase during the study period. Additionally, it was determined that public revenues largely come from tax revenues, while in public spending, current spending accounts for a greater share. Finally, a strong positive correlation of 77 % was found between the variables of remittances and public debt, and the results of the Lin-Log econometric model indicate that remittances, public debt, and non-permanent expenses are statistically significant, meaning that the money flows sent by emigrants do have a positive causal effect on the fiscal sustainability of the Ecuadorian State.

• 主要作者: Correa Jiménez, Liliana Soledad (author)
• 格式: bachelorThesis
• 語言: spa
• 出版: 2024
• 主題: FINANZAS; REMESAS; EMIGRANTES; ESTADO ECUATORIANO
• 在線閱讀: https://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/29856