Análisis de la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública en Ecuador: periodo 1990-2010

This research presents the "Analysis of Sustainability of Public Debt in Ecuador during the period 1990-2010 ", ie an analysis of the long-term fiscal solvency for Ecuador. This research stems from the problem "The high level of indebtedness of the Ecuadorian economy influences the unsustainable public debt in the long term" The overall objective of this research is to "Determine the sustainability of public debt in the long term data available in December 2010." The importance of this issue is to measure the existence of sustainability of the Ecuadorian public debt to thereby determine whether the Ecuadorian economy is able to make investment social, meet obligations to its creditors, entering politics of debt renegotiation , is to establish whether the Ecuadorian State has a solvency problem in the long term which is directly related to the horizon to pay its obligations ( principal and interest) , or the problem lies in the existence of liquidity in the short term . The main theoretical approaches that are addressed are: deficit financing, the sustainability of the public debt of the series treated ( GDP) and debt held by private holders . To do the test of time series stationarity, unit roots are performed and finally an error correction model was applied to study the behavior of the variables in the short term. Through these tests it is determined whether the debt - GDP ratio has grown explosively and if there is cointegration in the long run. The methodology used for this research is the application of log -log series models, along with the unit root tests (augmented, trend, PP and Z & A). Followed by tests for testing the existence of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. Finally cointegradora equation was applied (ratio debt held by private holders at market value / GDP) and error correction model. In the analysis of the GDP series and the series of private debt securities market, the results are similar in that the ADF and ADF tests augmented with 4, 3, and 2 lags indicate unit root problems but these are solved the PP test in first differences and first differences with 4 lags as the PP coefficient values are greater than 1, 5, and 10% significance level. Also the probability is less than 0.05 %, thus demonstrates the existence of a stationary series trend with structural breaks, accepting the alternative hypothesis of stationarity, ie sustainability in the long term and the existence of liquidity in the short term. This is rejected (theoretical and empirical) the existence of unit root in this series, so from this approach (which has been commonly used) by the Ecuadorian debt is sustainable in the long term and has not grown explosively. With the error correction model the result is conclusive: the behavior of short-term debt growth, presents the coefficient Ut -1 (-0.75) which indicates the speed at which these errors to conform trend term. Indeed, if a variation of 1 % occurs in the debt each quarter will correct 75% of the gap.

• 主要作者: Larriva Fernández, Carlos Israel (author)
• 格式: bachelorThesis
• 语言: spa
• 出版: 2016
• 主题: ANALISIS; ECONOMIA; DEUDA PÚBLICA; ECUADOR
• 在线阅读: http://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/12833