Modelación de la distribución potencial de Cinchona officinalis L, bajo escenarios de cambio climático y cambios de uso de suelo en la Región Sur del Ecuador

Cinchona officinalis L. is a forest species that has been disappearing in our territory as a result of deforestation, illegal logging, migratory agriculture and periodic fires, causing the loss of many of its natural habitats. The objective of this research was to generate models of the potential distribution of Cinchona officinalis L, under a context of climate change for different spatial and temporal dynamics in the Southern Region of Ecuador (RSE). To meet the objective, potential distribution models were applied using the Biomod2 v4.0 library implemented in R Core Team, presence records, 19 bioclimatic variables and 4 topographic variables. Statistical processes were applied to eliminate multicollinearity and overfitting of the models, using two methods: Pearson's correlation and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). The evaluation of the models and assemblies was carried out by applying the ROC and TSS tests, obtaining values above 0.90. The potential distribution models were obtained for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080, under the climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 6.0, for which the area of losses, gains and persistence for each model was determined in Qgis. As a result, the probability of the current potential distribution area of Cinchona officinalis L. in the RSE is 403,263.83 hectares, with a probability of loss of the current potential distribution area of between 70 and 75% in the years 2030, 2050 and 2080, with a probability of gain of potential distribution area in the future of between 10 and 15% with respect to the current distribution. In addition, the area of potential distribution as a function of land use change was 259,208.60 hectares, with the province of Loja having the greatest area and probability of potential distribution of Cinchona officinalis L, under the RCP 4.5 and 6.0 climate scenarios. The most important variables were DEM, BIO3 and BIO15. Therefore, species distribution models are necessary to evaluate the threats to which this species is subjected and to design reforestation plans in areas of conservation interest, incorporating in the latter case future climate change scenarios. Key words: Biomod2, Cinchona officinalis L, climate change scenarios, potential species distribution, land use change.

• 1. Verfasser: Mendez Cevallos, Alexis Geovanny (author)
• Format: bachelorThesis
• Sprache: spa
• Veröffentlicht: 2023
• Schlagworte: CAMBIO CLIMATICO; CINCHONA OFFICINALIS L
• Online Zugang: https://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/27611