Modelamiento del comportamiento de especies vegetales seleccionadas del parámo del Parque Nacional Podocarpus ante potencialidades cambios climáticos

This research was developed in the Podocarpus National Park (PNP) moor ecosystem, which is located in the southern region of Ecuador. The PNP according to the Ministerial Agreement No. 398 covers an area of 144 993 ha, distributed in the provinces of Loja and Zamora Chinchipe (Podocarpus Program, 2002) with altitudinal ranges, ranging from 960 to 3800 m (Lozano et al. , 2003). The paramo ecosystem covers an area of 15 thousand hectares. In order to analyze the changes in the spatial distribution patterns of plant species of the paramo of Podocarpus National Park, Ecuador South region compared to other potential climate change scenarios. For this study ten native species of Podocarpus Moors National Park, the same that were inventoried by previous studies at the site (Aguirre and Chamba, 2010; Eguiguren and Ojeda, 2008) were selected. The selection of species was based on search for species with certain conditions of sensitivity to changes, whether local or changes related to climate change. This five criterion were used by Aguirre and Chamba (2010) was adapted. The criterion used for the selection of species were: Species with high density in the wilderness, more dominant species on the moors, species in the four tops, lived semi-woody or woody species, species that are in poor condition. Following this model of current geographical distribution of selected in the wilderness of the Podocarpus National Park plant species for which records presence now confirmed species, current bioclimatic data (collected from the global database called were used were generated Wordclim), numerical data of slope and altitude (shapes generated database of the Ministry of Environment of Ecuador). To build predictive models of the spatial and temporal behavior of plants of the paramo ecosystem of Podocarpus National Park to potential climate changes, before starting with the modeling the following procedure was performed to provide the required information: The procedure to define 20 points random within the area of current potential of each plant species and 20 points outside presence, and in each of them the values of each of the bioclimatic and topographic variables selected previously extracted. This will build a database with the information of each of the variables per point of presence by species. Starting from the hypothesis of niche conservation, a multiple logistic regression, taking as dependent variable the presence or absence of the species and as bioclimatic and topographic predictor variables was performed. To select the equations to generate the maps was taken as criterion for evaluating the regression value of Nagelkerke R ², which values closer to 1 is taken the more quality the prediction. The management program ENVI version 4.7 satellite images, and using layers predicted weather for the future under the SRES B2A, selected topographic variables, the equations were of sufficient quality were entered and the prediction map was obtained the presence of the species. To assess potential changes in species distribution, 35 plots of 3 Km were used to statistically assess potential changes in the distribution, in which the percentage range of the species were measured, in the current models and future, the percentage range of the species that intersected with the plot network was defined by a sequence of steps in order to assess the change in the distribution of species. Finally, we proceeded to evaluate potential changes, generating layers of area non-presence, without changing area, an area that is lost and that is colonized area of the selected species. Changes were evaluated based on the percentage of change in this average per plot, each of the selected species.

• Hoofdauteur: Molina Carrión, Wilma Beatriz (author)
• Formaat: bachelorThesis
• Taal: spa
• Gepubliceerd in: 2014
• Onderwerpen: ESPECIES VEGETALES; PARQUE NACIONAL PODOCARPUS; CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
• Online toegang: http://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/12054