Distribución espacial de la especie Inga insignis bajo escenarios de cambio climático y cambios usos del suelo en la Región Sur del Ecuador

Inga insignis, a species endemic to Ecuador, is widely used in agroforestry systems because it is favorable for coffee cultivation by providing shade, maintaining soil fertility and adapting to very acidic and poor soil conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of land use change on the distribution of the species Inga Insignis in the southern region of Ecuador, through the correlative approach of modeling the species under different climatic scenarios, spatial and temporal dynamics, to determine its current and future potential distribution. The modeling of the potential distribution of the species was carried out using records of species presence, 19 bioclimatic variables, 4 topographic variables and the Biomod2 v4.0 library implemented in R Core Team (2021). Statistical methods were applied to exclude multicollinearity and model overfitting, for which two methods were used: Pearson correlation and variance inflation factor (VIF). The evaluation of the models and assemblies was carried out using the ROC and TSS tests, which reached values greater than 0.80 for ROC and 0.9 for TSS. The potential distribution models were performed under the RCP 4.5 and 6.0 climate scenarios for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080, and the areas of surface gain, loss and persistence were determined for each model using geographic information software. In addition, a comparison of the potential distribution models was made by cross-linking layers with land use change models using geographic land cover information based on 20 Functional Type Cover (PTF) types under the SSP - RCP 4.5 and 6.0 scenarios for the present and for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080. The distribution of the species Inga insignis (Guaba), in the southern region of Ecuador has a higher rate of area increase in the future under the RCP 4.5 and 6.0 scenarios, showing tolerance to climate change and high adaptive capacity, especially in the southeast of the RSE, where it is more likely to reproduce. The annual temperature range in which the species develops ranges from 23.6 to 9.1ºC with an elevation range between 3333 to 643 m.a.s.l. and annual precipitation between 3438 mm to 668.5 mm. Key words: Inga insignis, species distribution models, southern Ecuador, climate scenarios, land use change.

• Autor principal: Cartuche Coello, Bryan Alexis (author)
• Format: bachelorThesis
• Idioma: spa
• Publicat: 2023
• Matèries: CAMBIO CLIMATICO; INGA INSIGNIS
• Accés en línia: https://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/27519