Distribución potencial de Annona cherimola Mill bajo escenarios de cambio climático y cambios usos del suelo en la región Sur del Ecuador

As a result of climate change, biodiversity loss must be avoided, hence the need for global responses. Climate change impacts plant diversity by two effects: warming, which lengthens plants' activity period and increases their productivity, and water availability reduction, which acts in the opposite direction. In this context, Annona cherimola Mill is a fruit tree distributed from Central to South America. It has the largest population in the Andes of Ecuador and Peru. In this work we have delved into the reasons that may explain the current and future distribution of Annona cherimola Mill, a species adapted to subtropical climates, with clear implications for its use and conservation. The appreciation of this species and the knowledge of its distribution is considered the key basis for its conservation, because it is generally unknown in some countries and regions of the world. Therefore, it has been proposed to evaluate the modeling of the potential distribution of the species under climatic scenarios and land use changes. This is in Ecuador's southern region. The modeling methods were applied using the Biomod2 package implemented in RStudio, together with information on locations of occurrence of species in the Southern Region of Ecuador; as well as bioclimatic and topographic variables for baseline climate conditions and for upcoming climates for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080 generated by 10 climate change models for each RCP. To this end, projections of the current and future potential distribution were made for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080 under two climate change scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0. Bioclimatic and topographic variables affecting Annona cherimola Mill distribution were also considered, as well as quantifying land use change scenarios for the mill. The scenarios evaluated identified the areas of current distribution of the species that could lose suitability between 50% (2030 RCP 6.0) and 75% (2080 RCP 6.0) in future decades due to climate change and persist between 45% (2080 RCP 6.0) and 90% (2030 RCP 6. 0) could cease to be so, and gain between 20% (2080 RCP 6.0) and 70% (2030 RCP 6.0) of the modeled areas, which demonstrate the most favorable climatic conditions for the species. Key words: Climate variables; Species distribution models; Climate change; Land use.

• Hlavní autor: Chimbo Granda, Jaime Vinicio (author)
• Médium: bachelorThesis
• Jazyk: spa
• Vydáno: 2023
• Témata: MODELOS DE DISTRIBUCION; CAMBIO CLIMATICO; USO DE SUELO; VARIABLES CLIMATICAS
• On-line přístup: https://dspace.unl.edu.ec/jspui/handle/123456789/27361