Impacto climático de los páramos del Ecuador en el período 2020-2021.
One of the greatest challenges facing humanity is climate change associated with increased temperature and different precipitation regimes. This will be reflected with greater intensity in high mountain ecosystems, which are the first source of fresh water, and therefore, its alteration leads to an...
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| Formato: | bachelorThesis |
| Idioma: | spa |
| Publicado em: |
2021
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| Acesso em linha: | http://repositorio.utc.edu.ec/handle/27000/11044 |
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Adicionar Tag | Resumo: | One of the greatest challenges facing humanity is climate change associated with increased temperature and different precipitation regimes. This will be reflected with greater intensity in high mountain ecosystems, which are the first source of fresh water, and therefore, its alteration leads to an imbalance. The objective of this research was to know the current climate based on an analysis of 73 meteorological stations of temperature and precipitation variables for 47 observed years (1968-2014). This will allow us to understand the hydrological dynamics of the central and northern Andean region and compare the future impacts of climate change for the period (2050- 2090) by evaluating 39 GCMs under the extreme scenario CMIP5 rcp85. In this study, we use the monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) to understand drought scenarios. The study area is analyzed in general, where climate projections for 2050-2090 show variability in precipitation with an increase of 7.97% (1079.13 mm/year). An average temperature increase of 2.8°C is determined, i.e., from 13.35°C (observed) to 16.15°C (projected). Changes in the intensity and duration of droughts will be more severe, prolonged, but less frequent for the future period in relation to 1968- 2014. The frequency of meteorological droughts will decrease from 17.9% to 15.74% (101 dry months to 89 dry months). However, the duration will be longer (3 to 4 months) and more intense. The stations that will be most affected considering the variables frequency, duration, intensity, temperature and precipitation for the projected period 2050-2090 will be the following stations: M0350-HDA. LA GRANJA DE ALOAG, M0334-CANGAHUA M0337-SAN JOSE DE MINAS M0354-RUMIPAMBA-PICHINCHA where the areas that will have the greatest impact will be in the ecological reserves Ilinizas and Cayambe Coca, with an area of 8,059 km2 and 6. 87% of the xvi population of Chimborazo considering the most influential station M0393-SAN JUAN CHIMBORAZO, will suffer an increase in temperature affecting a paramo area of 97.476 km2 and the life zones: dry forest 316.13 km2 and very dry forest 287.85 km2. |
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