"Análisis de los escenarios de cambio climático mas alarmantes para la invasión potencial del caracol africano (ACHATINA FULICA) en Ecuador continental"

Biological invasions are causing serious impacts on biodiversity. Because of their rapid spread and climatic adaptability, it is difficult to eradicate invasive species. One of the most representative cases is Achatina fulica, one of the 100 worst invasive exotic species worldwide. Within continental Ecuador, it has taken on relevance among the most aggressive species due to its high frequency and the negative impacts it causes on biodiversity, agriculture, and human health. The objective of this research was to evaluate the potential invasion of the African snail in continental Ecuador in the face of climate change scenarios. We used 1525 records of geographic coordinates of the species, obtained from various sources such as scientific articles, global databases and research from the Amazonian State University. These records were used to model the potential distribution of the species using the maximum entropy method (Maxent). Four climatic laboratories were selected (IPSLCM5ALR, MIROC-ESM, GISS-E2-R and NorESM1-ME) that better predict the climate of the country in the future and the three bioclimatic variables used were Bio5 (maximum temperature of the warm month), Bio12 (annual precipitation) and Bio16 (precipitation of the rainiest quarter). Binary maps were obtained and analyzed in ArcGis, and allowed identifying the most susceptible areas with an extension of 121 747Km². The ideal climatic conditions for the African snail in Ecuador were in zones with tropical climates, warm semiarid and temperate oceanic, these zones had a maximum temperature of the warmest month from 19.0°C to 32.30°C, the annual precipitation with values of 147mm to 4477mm and the precipitation of the rainiest quarter had an average of 119 mm to 1824 mm. The Costa region is more climatically suitable for the species as well as the Amazon region in the future. The Sierra presents little risk due to the low temperatures and altitude. As the temperature increases between each climate change scenario, the spread of Achatina fulica is potentially reduced in the Coastal areas that were currently most affected, but the opposite occurs in new areas where the presence of the species could be more extensive, as is the case in the Amazon. PCR 2.6 was the most invasion-prone scenario with a maximum extension of 75 557,09Km². According to the existing climatic conditions, the African snail affected 36 protected areas. Therefore it is important to apply preventive and control measures for the invasion of this species. Keywords: invasive alien species, MaxEnt, modeling, protected areas.

• 1. Verfasser: Sánchez Jaramillo, Jennifer Yajaira (author)
• Format: bachelorThesis
• Sprache: spa
• Veröffentlicht: 2020
• Schlagworte: Cambio climático; Invasión potencial del caracol africano
• Online Zugang: http://repositorio.uteq.edu.ec/handle/43000/5934