Análisis de riesgo de expansión de Fusarium oxysporum F.sp. cubense ante el cambio climático en Ecuador continental
The pathogen Fusarium oxysporum F.sp. cubense, is the cause of Panama disease transmitted from the soil to the crop. Together with climate change, it is one of the main non-negotiable influences on biodiversity, causing imbalance in the welfare of banana production. This research project aims to eva...
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| Formatua: | bachelorThesis |
| Hizkuntza: | spa |
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2021
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| Sarrera elektronikoa: | http://repositorio.uteq.edu.ec/handle/43000/6211 |
| Etiketak: |
Etiketa erantsi
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Etiketa erantsi | Gaia: | The pathogen Fusarium oxysporum F.sp. cubense, is the cause of Panama disease transmitted from the soil to the crop. Together with climate change, it is one of the main non-negotiable influences on biodiversity, causing imbalance in the welfare of banana production. This research project aims to evaluate changes in the potential geographic distribution of Fusarium oxysporum F.sp. cubense in continental Ecuador under climate change scenarios. In this sense, information on the expansion of the fungus in different regions of Ecuador was investigated and analyzed using the NicheToolBox platform, taking into account climatic variables and scenarios of representative concentration trajectories (RCP). The Maxent maximum entropy algorithm was used to model the climatic niche of the species. According to the present and future potential geographic distribution, the species is distributed towards areas of the Sierra region with the highest suitability index, followed by the Coast. The greatest influence on the present and future potential distribution of the pathogen corresponds to the monthly temperature variables in a range of 2.5°C to 24°C. On the other hand, it was determined that under the climate change scenarios, the greatest expansion is found in the extreme scenario (RCP 8.5) with 33997.46 km2 by 2070; there would be a greater expansion in the Amazon region. The accumulated emissions of greenhouse gases in the present contribute to the accelerated expansion of the fungus in the future, especially in more vulnerable areas of the Amazon. Key words: Agriculture, Fusarium spp, ecological niche, modeling, geographic distribution, Panama disease |
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