Modelo predictivo para determinación de homicidios intencionales en Ecuador, 2020 - 2024
This research addresses the escalation of intentional homicides in Ecuador (2020-2024) using a time-series forecasting approach. The study transforms individual incident data into monthly time series representing four key patterns: total case volume, predominant weapon type, sociodemographic profile...
Kaydedildi:
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| Materyal Türü: | masterThesis |
| Dil: | spa |
| Baskı/Yayın Bilgisi: |
2025
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| Online Erişim: | https://repositorio.uteq.edu.ec/handle/43000/8802 |
| Etiketler: |
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Etiketle | Özet: | This research addresses the escalation of intentional homicides in Ecuador (2020-2024) using a time-series forecasting approach. The study transforms individual incident data into monthly time series representing four key patterns: total case volume, predominant weapon type, sociodemographic profile of victims, and geographic concentration. A comparative evaluation framework of three predictive models Prophet, SARIMA, and Holt-Winters is then developed to select the most accurate algorithm for each pattern. The main output is a five-year projection (2025-2029) that suggests the chronicity of the crisis at historically high levels, offering a quantitative and data-driven perspective on the future trajectory of the phenomenon. |
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