Distribución potencial de especies exóticas invasoras en Ecuador continental ante escenarios de cambio climático
The suitability of an ecological niche for invasive alien species in continental Ecuador and its projection in the face of climate change scenarios has been poorly studied, with invasive alien species being a threat mainly for ecosystems and native species. The objective of this research was to pred...
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| Format: | bachelorThesis |
| Jezik: | spa |
| Izdano: |
2018
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| Teme: | |
| Online pristup: | http://repositorio.uteq.edu.ec/handle/43000/3171 |
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Dodaj oznaku | Sažetak: | The suitability of an ecological niche for invasive alien species in continental Ecuador and its projection in the face of climate change scenarios has been poorly studied, with invasive alien species being a threat mainly for ecosystems and native species. The objective of this research was to predict the variations in the potential geographical distributions of invasive alien species from continental Ecuador in the face of climate change scenarios. A modeling of the ecological niche of the invasive species Arachis pintoi, Melinis minutiflora, Psidium guajava and Asclepias curassavica was carried out according to their records of presence worldwide and 19 bioclimatic variables through the algorithm of maximum entropy (MAXENT). These models were transferred to continental Ecuador in the present and future with their center in 2050 (2041-2060), based on the representative scenarios RCP 4.5 (conservative) and RCP 8.5 (extreme) for the country. The potential geographical distribution of the species was compared between the current and future scenarios through the SDMtools tool in ArcGis 10.1 to see potential expansions, contractions or stability. The AUC resulting from the modeling had mostly belonging to a good fit of the model, except for the models for the species Arachis pintoi under future scenarios and the species Asclepias curassavica in all its scenarios. While the most influential environmental variables for the presence of the four modeled species were precipitation in the wettest quarter, seasonal temperature, average diurnal range and average temperature of the coldest quarter for each respectively. The changes in the potential geographical area saw a greater variation in the species Asclespias curassavica and the greater amount in expansion area was obtained by the species Psidium guajava |
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