Identificación de las trayectorias representativas de concentración (RCP) que potencialmente afectaran la distribución de cóndor andino (VULTUR GRYPHUS) en Ecuador ante escenarios de cambio climático.
The increase in global temperature is one of the biggest problems for biodiversity, and it is considered one of the main drivers of extinction. Species are undergoing ecological changes to develop adaptation mechanisms, but that process leads to a decrease in populations and an increase in extinctio...
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| Format: | bachelorThesis |
| Idioma: | spa |
| Publicat: |
2020
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| Matèries: | |
| Accés en línia: | http://repositorio.uteq.edu.ec/handle/43000/5941 |
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Afegir etiqueta | Sumari: | The increase in global temperature is one of the biggest problems for biodiversity, and it is considered one of the main drivers of extinction. Species are undergoing ecological changes to develop adaptation mechanisms, but that process leads to a decrease in populations and an increase in extinction. This is accentuated in species with small population sizes such as the Andean Condor, which is also under constant threat from habitat loss. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the potential geographic distribution of the Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in the face of different representative concentration trajectories (RCP) in Ecuador. For the niche modeling, 6173 records of geographic coordinates of the species were used, collected from scientific articles, global databases, and institutions such as The Peregrine Fund and Fundación Cóndor Andino that provided satellite telemetry records. In addition, two bioclimatic variables were selected (mean annual temperature and rainfall of the rainiest quarter), and altitude was included for ecological significance. Also, four bioclimatic laboratories of better performance were selected for climate prediction in the country. With these data, the potential distribution was modeled through Maxent's algorithm, and binary maps were obtained that were analyzed in ArcGis, identifying the potential areas of decrease of adequate conditions for the presence of the species. The results indicated that the most important climates in the distribution area, in roosts and foraging sites, were the temperate oceanic (CFB) tundra climate (ET). It was also determined that at present, the most suitable distribution sites are located in the central zone of the Andean mountain range. As for future climate change situations, the worst scenario was 8.5-2070, it was also identified that with the increase of greenhouse gases and temperature, roosts, foraging areas and general distribution could decrease their suitability considerably, being the bordering areas the most fragile. With regard to the system of protected areas, the most susceptible sites were Sangay, Rio Negro Sopladora and Cerro Plateado, and there are also important areas for the condor that are not considered in the SNAP. The Andean Condor could be seriously affected by climate change, and if conservation strategies are not implemented, it is likely that in a short period of time it will become extinct. Keywords: Extinction, ecological niche modelling, climatic suitability, conservation |
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