Oscillating reactions models applied to analysis of COVID-19 spreading in Ecuador using genetic algorithm tools

In 2020, the COVID-19 disease became an epidemic causing thousands of deaths worldwide. In the first months of the pandemic, the poor knowledge of the disease and the weak control measurements made Ecuador one of the most affected countries by the COVID-19. The present work proposes to apply a SEIRD compartment model to obtain the epidemic parameters related to the COVID-19 pandemic to understand its behavior based on the control measurements taken by the Ecuadorian population. Due to certain inconsistencies in the data for infected populations reported in the available official sources, it was decided to take the data of the excess deaths registered during the year 2020 in Ecuador, thus having information that reflects in a more authentic way the reality of the country. Those parameters were obtained in different periods by fitting the death curves of the model with the excess death for 2020 using Genetic Algorithms. The fittings were separated into three periods and were performed in the Ecuadorian provinces with the higher deaths in 2020: Guayas, Santa Elena, and Manabí. The results showed that the highest infection rate and deaths were registered in the first period of fitting, and then those were decreasing considerably. The epidemic parameters obtained were justified by different events Ecuadorian people faced during the pandemic. Furthermore, the epidemic behavior was related to complex chemical systems given the analogy of the SEIRD model with oscillatory enzymatic reactions.

• Автор: Sánchez Blacio, Nathaly Maricela (author)
• Формат: bachelorThesis
• Мова: eng
• Опубліковано: 2022
• Предмети: COVID-19; Epidemia; Muertes; Epidemic; Deaths; SEIRD
• Онлайн доступ: http://repositorio.yachaytech.edu.ec/handle/123456789/497