Analysis of landslide triggering mechanisms in the Imbabura Province

Landslides are produced by mechanical and complex interactions between predisposing and triggering factors that lack understanding. Most landslides in the Imbabura Province, northern Ecuador, are recorded as geohazard events whose occurrence is assumed to be triggered by heavy rainfall. Few studies have attempted to discriminate the influence of triggering factors on the landslide occurrence to verify such statement. This study investigates the cause-effect relationship that triggered landslides in the province of Imbabura. To do this, generalized linear models (GLM) and generalized additive models (GAM) were used in an explanatory modelling setting to analyse the relationship between mapped landslide initiation points and terrain, topographic, and climatic predisposing factors. Both statistical models showed high predictability performance, where precipitation had the highest influence on the occurrence of landslides with estimates of 6.35 and 6.78, respectively, followed by the factor elevation with estimates of 5.98 in GLM, and the factor slope aspect with an estimate of 1,72 in GAM, under a 5% significance level. This clearly shows the importance of climatic predisposing factors in landslide occurrence which is due to a stratiform type of precipitation that increase the soil moisture saturation in the study area. Furthermore, agricultural land use and livestock showed a negative influence, which calls for further research to determine the role that land use may play in contributing landslide occurrence. The present study may serve as a baseline to assess the effectiveness of statements on landslide triggering mechanisms in the country.

• Main Author: Rivera Añazco, Ariana Guiscelle (author)
• Format: bachelorThesis
• Language: eng
• Published: 2021
• Subjects: Ocurrencia de deslizamientos; Regresión logística; Modelo aditivo generalizado; Provincia de Imbabura; Landslide occurrence; Logistic regression; Generalized additive model; Imbabura province
• Online Access: http://repositorio.yachaytech.edu.ec/handle/123456789/387