Determinantes del déficit presupuestario ecuatoriano: un análisis empírico

ABSTRACT: This research document aims to respond to the paradigm of which economic and political variables influence the deficit behavior of the global budgetary result of the Central Government of Ecuador on an accrual basis during the period 1990-2022. For this, econometric modeling is carried out with gradual multiple regressions and validating the assumptions of the ordinary least squares estimation. It was verified through the results achieved in model 6 that, in economic aspects, the growth rate of real GDP, level of public debt, income inequality and trade openness significantly explain the dependent variable but in the first and third variables economic situation, the expected sign of correlation was not achieved, leading to the convincing non-observance of anticyclicality fiscal policy and the social polarization effect. Regarding the political components of the electoral and liberal principle of Ecuadorian democracy, they turned out to be significant in the explanation of the endogenous variable, evidencing the political budget cycle with fiscal illusion and the notability of a State boasting solid budgetary institutions.

• 主要作者: Ayol Ayol, Cristian Israel (author)
• 格式: bachelorThesis
• 語言: spa
• 出版: 2024
• 主題: déficit presupuestario; instituciones presupuestarias; ciclo presupuestario político; política fiscal
• 在線閱讀: http://dspace.unach.edu.ec/handle/51000/12831